Carousel- a crowd favourite ride in amusement parks- is used as a metaphor to signify that life continues and moves forward irrespective of the happenings. When this analogy is applied in the context of international trade, one relation that instantly comes to mind is that of India and Russia. Despite changing regimes, wars and upheavals, the two countries have remained committed to stable, mutually beneficial relations.

February 2022 marked an inflection point in the Russia-India oil trade. That was when Russian missiles hit Ukrainian territory and turned the world oil industry on its head. Pre-2022, Russian oil accounted for below 1% of India’s oil imports and India depended largely on its middle eastern partners for supply.

Post-invasion, India- Russia relations in oil trade got a shot in the arm. The value of crude oil imports from Russia rose from less than $2.5 billion in FY 2021-22 to over $31 billion in FY 2022-23 to around $140 billion in FY 2023-24, accounting for 35.9% of its oil imports.

Such a trade boost was despite of sustained pressure from the western bloc of countries, threats of sanctions as well as USA led price cap on Russian oil at $60 per barrel. Russia provided India with highly discounted crude oil and an assured supply stream. Through the year 2025, oil imports from Russia maintained their pace and reached a high of 2,089 thousand barrels per day in June 2025.

Unable to bear with the intransigence of India, the USA under President Donald Trump imposed additional tariffs of 25% on India, in addition to the existing 25% reciprocal tariffs.

As a result of the sanctions and fear of further reprisals, India adjusted its oil trade with Russia and the imports reached a 38 month low 1,217 thousand barrels per day in December 2025.

The new year brought some good news in the form of the long-pending US-India trade deal. The additional tariffs were rolled back and the reciprocal tariffs also underwent a downward revision. India increased its purchase of US oil and things were just starting to settle when the US and Israel undertook a joint invasion of Iran on February 28, 2026.

Like clockwork, the oil prices went up, supply chains got disrupted and international relations went for a toss. Caught off-guard by the turmoil in the oil industry, the US was seen scrambling for options. It eventually granted a 30-day waiver to India to import Russian oil stranded at sea. It effectively allowed imports of increased quantities from Russia, leading us full circle to the start of February 2022. After all, the carousel keeps turning.

JUNE 26, 2026